The Bearish XRP Dilemma... – Innovation Markets

The Bearish XRP Dilemma...

For the record, it should be stated before we proceed that I am incredibly bullish on XRP and Ripple.

The term bullish and bearish is thrown around loosely throughout the Crypto arena, and it’s easily misinterpreted by the uneducated. When XRP soared towards $2 in 2021 and I initiated profit-taking, I was labelled ‘bearish’. The truth, I wasn’t necessarily bearish or bullish, I was simply seeing telltale signs from the market that prices would go lower, therefore, I executed sells based on my judgement and understanding of what I was comprehending from the charts. I prefer not to divulge too deeply into labels, or the bull and bear battles, it’s childish and tends to refer to a representation of someone expecting unrealistic prices either above or below the current trading prices. When I say I am bullish on XRP and Ripple, I am expressing my belief that at some point in the future I believe the company will solidify themselves amongst the leaders in their field, working alongside them, reflecting towards a growth in XRP over time. I do not have a timeline, and certainly do not care for unnecessary predictions that achieve nothing but hopium or reassurance for my decisions. I prefer to make assumptions based on what I see on the charts in the present moment, and I see no reason to deviate from what has been proven to work efficiently and consistently.

With that out of the way, it goes without saying that this article stems from completely unbiased and neutral perspective. Just keep a subtle reminder whilst reading that I believe this all plays out into a much bigger picture, and is arguably the best possible outcome.

Let’s first examine what the majority believe is going to happen, and have believed will happen for several years now, without ever learning their lessons from the drastic consequences that have followed as a result of such delusional ways of thinking. Just like any other cryptocurrency, XRP has a cult following, one of the strongest, closely correlated with the likes of Qanon. Whilst I believe on the surface-level the average investors understanding of Ripple and XRP is valid, and derives from good intentions, the majority have lost touch of reality and are instead pursuing their investments as the saviour, almost biblical in nature.

A simple search of the keywords ‘Ripple’ and ‘XRP’ on Twitter can leave you questioning whether you’re reading about Cryptocurrencies, or some form of Star Wars fan-made fiction. It’s truly incredible how easily the masses are swayed when money is on the line. When your investments are based on fictional beliefs, it can be hard to ever break away from this trap, as most are not strong enough to stomach they’ve been deceived and instead prefer to spend the remainder of their lives feeding off reassurance. I referred to Qanon because it worked off the same principles, “trust the plan” was the motto, this was a hopium-mechanism that kept cult followers hooked onto the narrative and delusional promises, despite endless failed timelines. XRP’s cult works in the exact same way, where ‘riddlers’ on Twitter lead the blind sheep from one narrative to the next, all of which have failed to ever become a reality. Do the naive sheep ever stop to question if they’ve been led astray? Of course not, because they have invested money they cannot afford to lose, based off these lies fed to them, so they’re told to shut up, trust the plan, and keep buying.

Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and risky assets. If you’re buying them with the intention to make a profit, that means you’re making an investment. An investment must be made with an understanding of what is being bought, with a logical reasoning backed with proof behind where it may go in the future. Using magical gematria or listening to an anonymous person online will not reap the results you desire. These individuals are amassing the sheep in herds and leading them down a path of no return. Cryptocurrencies have spawned cult-like behavioural patterns where mysterious correlations are made through all forms of avenues, in order to justify making bold claims regarding where prices will be in the future. You have to ask yourself, could all of these people believing they’ll become a millionaire truly be able to achieve this by merely investing off the basis of conspiracy theories?

Judging from the current circumstances of the bear market, those led astray by riddlers and a belief in a never-ending price rally have been left entirely destroyed. This is where the self-fulfilling prophecy of the HODL mentality derives, as many are left with no choice but to continue pursuing mythical predictions, in order to help them continue living another day suffering horrific losses.

Whilst technical analysis is not perfect, nothing truly is for that matter, it allows you to attain the highest level of clarity regarding what is currently happening, and what will likely happen regarding your investments. Candlesticks are a representation of human psychology, it enables us to view how traders globally and those pulling the strings are operating at critical price points. The birth of the Cryptocurrency euphoric bull cycles opened a gateway to newcomer investors participating in one of the riskiest markets known to man. Many of the newcomers to the cryptocurrency arena do not understand charting, many have never even invested prior to their cryptocurrency investments. Without an understanding of what the charts are implying, we become susceptible to a faith in our investments based on external sources such as YouTube videos and social media accounts. Very few people show their holdings, even fewer are able to showcase a profitable outcome from their bold projections broadcasted to the masses.

We have to think logically. Millions of people are investing into coins at any given price, with the full faith this will resolve many of their financial issues and achieve a lifetime of financial freedom. This is of course an impossibility. To date, every individual who has invested into crypto off this assumption has ended up holding coins with over a -70% depreciation on their initial cost basis. Despite this harsh reality, many are still making incredible returns from the Cryptocurrency Market through the utility of sensible profit-taking and an understanding of technical analysis in order to slightly push the odds closer in their favour.

The losers in the market are working off timelines which are continuously evolving and changing. Deadlines are missed, the SEC vs Ripple case dates are extending, prices are not going any higher, yet a belief remains that all of this is part of the plan and at any given moment a switch will be flipped and a lifetime of riches will follow. That doesn’t sound like investing to me.

The traditional beliefs, using XRP as an example, is the holy $100 price target being achieved in a sudden upside explosion similar to the historical bull cycles we have seen before. Some propose this will be upon the SEC settling with Ripple, others propose this will happen out of nowhere. We have to be realistic with ourselves and ask the correct questions, what makes you believe it will end with a settlement? What makes you believe Ripple will win? Due to the severity of the bear market’s unfortunate circumstances on investors, blind faith is placed into the hands of anonymous entities online talking in certainties. You must ask yourself if it’s logical to make the assumption of a certainty regarding the future, this is an incredibly dangerous way to think and handle investments.

With that being said, like I mentioned earlier, I believe what many of the riddlers and hopeful investors are praying for to happen are somewhat correct, just not in the timeline they’re under the assumption it will happen within. I myself do believe that XRP can someday achieve a price of $100, maybe higher if all goes accordingly. What has to be emphasised here is the word BELIEF! A belief in what will happen doesn’t equate to what will actually happen. If millions of individuals are currently suffering severe losses from their unrealistic beliefs, it takes a little common sense to stop and consider that whilst they’re losing, others are continuously winning throughout the process.

The market is not your friend. It doesn’t care about you, nor does it care for your desires to get rich. The market is simply the market, you are merely a participant in an ever-evolving arena you have zero control over moving. Your participation can aid the movements of price, which tends to be aiding the movement of price into favourable areas for market makers to slaughter you.

From the monthly timeframe shown on the chart provided, the optimal higher-timeframe perspective, we can see a very interesting oversight of how this may play out over the longer-term horizon. Upon the first ‘real’ bull run being initiated from 2017, we can note the monthly candle closure settled at $1.975, highlighting a level significant enough for price to halt momentum and end the month of December 2017 at this price point. Despite the following monthly candle open surging during its initial stages to a height of $3.3, price quickly plummeted back below the $1.975 territory to settle for a January 2018 monthly closure at $1.13. This represented a significant new wall for the coin, a region that price was orchestrated in such a manner to maintain and put the parabolic bull run to an end.

In 2021, during the month of April, the following bull run came to a halt. From a low of $0.11 in March 2020, price exploded over 1,600%, defying the odds during a time where the uncertainties of the COVID crash diminished faith in the recovery of the Cryptocurrency Market. The bull run came to an end at precisely the $1.975 level, falling just short of the psychological $2 level, tapping into the prior bull runs monthly candle closure price of $1.975, followed by an almost identical series of mirrored monthly candle closures with the 2017 bull run end. The April-May 2021 monthly candle closures replicated the 2017 ATH closures, and depleted slightly to create a new series of closures at the $1.60 price point. Expanding a new resistance zone from the 2021 highs shows a peculiar pattern of descending highs.

From a technical perspective, the 2021 high failed to breach the historical ATH monthly closure of $1.975 printed in 2017. Not only did price fail to break the actual ATH of $3.3, it also couldn’t break above the settled monthly candle closure price of $1.975. This means a new lower high was created in 2021. With the market now currently trading at the time of writing around the $0.33 handle, the 2021 high has been solidified as a new lower high, representing XRP to be in an overall downtrend since the initial 2017 ATH was printed. I believe many have missed this incredibly simplistic but powerful sign presented by the sequence of events that have taken place over the past few years. Whilst many other coins such as BTC continued on to make new highs, XRP remains one of the only coins to be creating overall lower highs and in what is now proven to be a long-term bear market. Whilst price is still significantly higher than its absolute lows, the past 5 years-worth of data now presents us with an insight into this incredibly interesting proposal.

Following historical patterns to aid us with future projections, the $1.60 wall now becomes the new foundation for a future price to be revisited upon the next bull cycle. I believe this level to be incredibly important in understanding what fate lies in store next for XRP. A descending wedge is unfolding from the monthly timeframe, meaning if history is to repeat itself, the next bull run may very well peak at the $1.60 level, indicating the final series of parabolic bull cycles coming to an end, confirming 3 lower highs in the process, and sending price back down one more time to the lows we are continuously told we will never see again.

It’s important to be realistic and utilise the data we have at our disposal to our advantage. The $1.60 wall now represents the key indicator for XRP being shackled within a long-term bear market. We mustn’t get ahead of ourselves, we cannot focus on levels such as $5, $10, or $100 until the current trading boundaries of the ATH’s and lows are revisited. If the next bull run is to peak at the $1.60 level, it will mark a new lower high, alongside an indication of what I believe will be the final parabolic bull run before a slow-bleed back down to the lows once again.

Whilst this may sound a little disheartening, I believe if this is to be the case it would be the best case scenario. This would signal the end of the meme-like culture of irrational price gains, where falling prices yet again crush the dreams of euphoric bulls, and slowly trades its way back down to the lows, where I believe a transition would be taking place behind the scenes towards a year that continuously keeps being proposed, 2025. This transition would be regulatory approval, true mainstream adoption, and a market being completely reset to ground zero, ridding it of its delusional and irrational ways, allowing the assets to be reborn from the ashes based on utility and real-world value.

Not only will such a scenario propose a major indication for a total market reset, it will also cleanse the market of shitcoins and investors who are pursuing unrealistic timelines. Should such a situation unfold, those led astray by riddlers and unrealistic price targets will slowly drop off one by one, as faith is lost in the future of the market, and all of the euphoria is brought to a halt during this transitioning period. It would be throughout this period where the greatest cryptocurrency accumulation phase could be taking place, a period where parabolic bull runs come to an end, and price trades in a constricted range close to the lows, indicating major institutional adoption is taking place. The HODL mentality participants will be broken, slowly but surely selling and fleeing the market completely. What they will not realise is that the market will be preparing to set off on an entirely new journey driven by utility, where the upside possibilities become endless. A new form of market cycle that mirrors the S&P500, slowly but surely growing rationally and sensibly over time, eventually reaching the price targets everyone expects in the present moment over a period of many years to follow.

Throughout this transitioning period to a true mainstream adoption, those pursuing quick riches will be disheartened by the lack of movements, failing to realise everything they believed in this very moment was actually going to happen, just much longer than anticipated.

If XRP to hit $100, it will likely happen in this manner. Over many years to follow, slowly and steadily. For it to be instant is impossible, as everyone would become multimillionaires in a flash. For it to happen in this way, sensibly, it becomes the greatest possibility of them all.

Those involved in the market for the wrong intentions will inevitably miss out on the abundance of life changing opportunities it will soon provide when the time is right.

I believe the next few years will be a crucial time for accumulating as many coins as possible, before this new cycle is born and takes cryptocurrencies into the stratosphere. Any bull cycles that follow will be leveraged with the intention of capitalising as much profit as possible, to re-invest lower and accumulate as much as possible.

This may not be the scenario or projection you desire, but it’s certainly a great possibility for a realistic way to put the odds in your favour and create a secure and comfortable life.

I wish nothing but success for everyone. I just hope you're able to view this perspective and take it into consideration.